The government retains the growth forecast by 2025 by 2.6%, despite the tariffs and disconnection of the shutdown
The government supports its own Growth forecasts economic by 2025 and 2026, which is placed in 2.6% And 2.2%Accordingly, despite the context of the uncertainty of the world created Tariff war Donald Trump and shocks that the Spanish economy suffers, including Mass shutdown This Monday.
This was explained on Wednesday by the Minister of Economics, Carlos Bole, at the press conference after the extraordinary council of ministers who Macroeconomic update of the table This accompanies the subsequent report on the financial plan that Spain should send to Brussels. Sources of the economy claim that maintaining growth forecasts “demonstrates the power of the Spanish economy Faced threats. “
During its appearance, the body accurately emphasized, despite Uncertain geopolitical context International and “consistent shocks” that have influenced the Spanish economy in recent months, including Danu, Tariff conflict And this week also Supply»Prospects over the next four years – some Favorable prospects“In which average growth, as is predicted, will be higher than 2.2% from 2025 to 2028.
“The Spanish economy supports its dynamism and will continue to lead From the point of view of growth among the main economies of the eurozone, “he defended the body that insists that his“ balanced growth ”is confirmed. The dynamism of the economy continues, is those who allow maintaining this growth, so that in order to The forecast for this year is maintained at 2.6%Field
The influence of tariffs
The body explained that new forecasts include the influence of a commercial war encrypted in A tenth of GDPBut this will be compensated by the greatest impulse of private consumption. Thus, it provides that internal demand is the main growth engine during this year, since it will make 3.1 points, while the consumption of households will increase by 3.2%; Public, 2.3 %and investments, 4.3 %.
Meanwhile, the foreign sector will deduct 0.4 points from GDP out of moderation Exports that stop And in 2026 it will increase by 1.2% by 2025 and 1.8%, while imports will grow by 2.7% this year and 3.7% in the following.
Labor market and deficit
As for arrestThe department that directs bodies predicts the level 10.3% For this year and 9.6% In 2026. The minister indicated that he expects the average employment growth in the next four years of 480,000 new employees every year, while by 2025 he retains the goal of adding 500,000 new jobs. This is an improvement in employment, he added, “will be accompanied by a progressive improvement in wages above prices”, which will allow obtaining purchasing power.
In this sense, as EFE collects, the body indicated that since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022 Real rent per capita In Spain, it increased by 8.7%, which is higher than in other European countries.
The economy, in turn, evaluates that GDP defaultwhich measures behavior inflationIn 2026, it will be 2.6% and 2.3%. Forecast Public deficit It remains at the level of 2.5% of GDP this year – although the document indicates that it will grow to 2.8% if the influence of the influence were taken into account – and emphasize that if the costs associated with the debt will be eliminated, Spain will be found in excess.
